Here are the 4 factors that will decide the winner of the Butler-Michigan State game, in order of importance:

• Matt Howard: In little over 12 months, Butler’s center has gone from Horizon League Player of the Year to someone who struggles to stay on the court due to foul trouble, is no longer the focal point of the offense, and has not reached 10 points in his last three games. Great defense, Gordon Hayward’s emergence, and solid bench production have compensated for Howard’s vanishing act, but a good game from Howard would really be a huge boost for the Bulldogs. While they don’t absolutely need him to win, it would sure make things a whole lot easier.
• Michigan State’s fast break points: Anything easy the Spartans can get will be an enormous plus considering how hard Butler will make them work in the half court. Michigan State loves to push the ball, and they need to try to get themselves in as many transition situations as possible. Because the Bulldogs are a little smaller, the Spartans may not have to worry about the defensive backboards as much, which may benefit their running game.
• Raymar Morgan: His inconsistency was one of the biggest storylines entering last year’s Final Four. Due to the focus on Draymond Green this time around, his performance has not been scrutinized nearly as closely. However, it remains just as important. Morgan has been in double figures in 3 of the Spartans’ 4 tournament games and put up 17 huge points (to go along with 9 boards) in the thrilling win over Maryland. He better get there again if Michigan State is to have a chance against Butler’s stifling defense.
• Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley’s perimeter D: The headline from the Bulldogs’ victory over Kansas State was the lockdown (especially in the first half) of star guards Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente by Butler’s starting backcourt. Nored and Veasley hounded the Wildcat pair into bad shots and turnovers, and they’re going to continue that effort. Durrell Summers has had a breakout tournament, leading Michigan State in scoring this tournament and shooting 14-22 from 3 point range in his last three games, and Korie Lucious has been a more than capable replacement for injured star point man Kalin Lucas. If Nored and Veasley shut down Summers and Lucious, the Spartans just don’t have enough other scoring punch.