Yesterday may have been the best day in the history of the NCAA Tournament. Real talk, I’m not exaggerating.
There were 4 last second shots to win (Murray State, Northern Iowa, Washington, and Wake Forest), 3 overtime games (BYU, Villanova, and Wake Forest), a 15 seed coming oh so close to beating a 2 (Robert Morris vs. Villanova), a 13 seed just clipping a 4 (Murray State vs. Vanderbilt), and a slew of other extremely exciting games.
Lastly there was that 14 seed dismantling a 3. Everybody and their mother believed that Georgetown was the only 3 seed “lock” to advance, and it wasn’t even supposed to be close. Come on! Ohio was 7-9 in the MAC! But yesterday the Bobcats were the mack, confidently nailing threes from all over the court – they finished 13 for 23 – and playing with phenomenal swagger.
It’s clear why many sportswriters are unusually wary to pick tourney outcomes and especially point spreads. The Big Dance is kind of like a crazy girlfriend. Sometimes it loves you and tries to treat you well; sometimes it hates you and rips out both your heart and wallet. It’s just that unpredictable.
According to my friend Pauly, you could have won a lot of money by betting against ballershorts’ picks. But I actually finished the day with more correct winners than professional bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who according to my friend Sanjay knows more about college basketball than God.
Therefore, I enter today fully confident in my abilities to predict these March Madness games (at least as well as those getting paid to do it). Here are my thoughts for Friday’s games, starting with the morning session:
15 Morgan State vs. 2 West Virginia: In Reggie Holmes, the Bears have a guy who can get hot in hurry. He dropped 34 on Arkansas earlier this year and averages almost 22 per game. But the Mountaineers are just too balanced and physical. Maybe, just maybe, Bob Huggins won’t have to yell for all 40 minutes of this one. WVU by 15.
11 Minnesota vs. 6 Xavier: Which Golden Gopher team is going to show up? The one that held Purdue to 11 first half points or the one that lost by 30 to Ohio State? I think this game is a toss up, but I like Musketeer point guard Terrell Holloway, who runs the team like a seasoned veteran even though he’s just a sophomore, to turn the tide in Xavier’s favor. Xavier by 5.
12 Cornell vs. 5 Temple: As I mentioned a couple days ago, this game has been hotly debated since the moment the brackets were unveiled. Both teams seem underseeded and capable of making a run to the Sweet 16. So for this one I’m trusting my heart and pulling for the Ivy League to come through. They’re gonna need to hit their threes though. Cornell by 2.
13 Siena vs. 4 Purdue: Unlike most other pundits, I’m not counting the Boilermakers out just because of Robbie Hummel’s injury. That being said, Siena’s very good and has been there before. Saints by 4.
10 Missouri vs. 7 Clemson: Both Tigers teams stink on the road so have no shot at winning a second round game. Mizzou made a run last year with most of the same backcourt, Zaire Taylor and JT Tiller, so I see this mini-upset going down. Missouri by 7.
14 Oakland vs. 3 Pittsburgh: Oakland breezed through the Summit League, but they lost by a zillion points to all the big time teams they played in the nonconference schedule. Pittsburgh doesn’t really blow teams out, though, so this one might be a little interesting. Panthers by 8.
13 Wofford vs. 4 Wisconsin: I wouldn’t be surprised if Wofford pulled off this upset (and I’m actually rooting for the Terriers because I hate Wisconsin), but I’m not going to call it. The Badgers have been so consistent all season and they really get after it on the defensive end. Wisconsin by 5.
12 Utah State vs. 5 Texas A&M: This battle of the Aggies should be very hard fought. A&M have a leader in Donald Sloan who will carry them to victory. Texas A&M by 8.
9 Florida State vs. 8 Gonzaga: The Zags are a great offensive team who sometimes have defensive breakdowns. The Seminoles are a great defensive team who struggle on offense. Gonzaga has enough weapons, though, to still play their game, and FSU won’t be able to hang. Gonzaga by 12.
10 Georgia Tech vs. 7 Oklahoma St: I’m pretty down on these mediocre ACC teams, especially the ones that have been inconsistent. James Anderson, on the other hand, is a dominant scorer. If his teammates just do enough, the Cowboys will be ok. I think they’ll do enough. OK St by 6.
12 New Mexico State vs. 5 Michigan State: I’m going with the conventional wisdom here: Despite the Spartans’ recent woes, Tom Izzo will have his team prepared very well for this matchup. Izzo is great come tournament time, and his teams almost never underperform. Michigan St. by 9.
16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. 1 Duke: ARPB could keep this game close. I don’t think they will. Duke by 20.
16 Vermont vs. 1 Syracuse: Ditto. Syracuse by 27.
15 UCSB vs. 2 Ohio State: The Gauchos will probably hang for a half, and then the Buckeyes’ superior talent will get the best of them. If you haven’t seen Evan Turner yet, start watching now. His game reminds me of Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson. He’s a big guard who’s so smooth, always under control, and seems to easily get what he wants on the court. Ohio St by 16
13 Houston vs. 4 Maryland: Houston’s Aubrey Coleman and Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez are two of the best players in the tournament. Both can really light up the scoreboard, but Vasquez can also get his teammates involved. Jordan Williams inside should be the difference. Maryland by 3.
9 Louisville vs. 8 California: I predict both senior point guards, Jerome Randle and Edgar Sosa, to perform excellently. If Jamal Boykin does a solid job on Samardo Samuels, swingmen Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson should provide enough punch to get the Bears a win. Cal by 6.
