LeBron’s Future

January 9, 2010 at 12:27 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA

It probably doesn’t come as a surprise that my friends and I like to discuss hoops. Well, yesterday my boy Dan sent out an email discussing future possibilities for LeBron. Here is the transcript of the ensuing conversation:

Dan: Here’s a free idea for your blog, loosely titled, why LeBron is in a unique position in basketball history:

He is definitely one of the two best players in the league.  Unlike Kobe he has taken a team of absolute nobodies to the Finals (and yea I know that the East was damn weak that year, but like I said not wholly coherent).  Unlike Jordan, everybody likes him and he doesn’t throw his teammates under the bus.  Which brings me  to my point.  He has the skills, the credibility and the charisma to RUN his own team.  He can, and should, tell his coach/GM to trade Shaq for another swingman/athletic
4, turn their team from the 2003 Pistons to the 2007 Suns (can you imagine LeBron bearing down on you EVERY time you miss a jumper) and try to win a title like that while his legs are fresh and he hasn’t taken so many hits that his ability to go to the hoop goes south faster than Brandon Jacob’s yds/carry average.

Like I said, not fully coherent, but a thought none-the-less.  And admit it, an intriguing possibility.

Matt: Rebuttal:

Who are these “athletic 4s” of which you speak? Of actual impact players, there’s Bosh, Amare, Odom, Rashard Lewis, Anthony Randolph, Josh Smith (if we’re calling him a 4), Al Harrington, Blake Griffin’s ACLs, Beasley… and that’s kinda it. Sure, K-Mart circa 2000 and Matrix circa 2006 would’ve worked, as would T-Wolves Garnett.

Maybe you get somebody to take Shaq’s monster EC (21 mil).  Maybe.  But the Raps wouldn’t do it.  The Suns wouldn’t, obviously.  The Magic surely wouldn’t.  The Hawks don’t need the cash.  So, I’m saying this option is out.

As for swingmen… the Cavs already have Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, and Danny Green.  These guys can all shoot and defend.  I think they’re pretty set there.  Not sure what you want to give up, and who you think you’ll get in return.

I have a better solution: Lebron becomes that athletic 4. Look at what Kobe has done this year with Pau out. LbJ is so much bigger and more athletic than 2009 Kobe, he could be a mix of Karl Malone, Magic Johnson, and pre-injury Amare. He could average 40.

He just needs to wait to do this until Kobe retires, so the Lakers can keep winning rings.

Dan: Well yea, LeBron being the 4 makes a lot of sense, and I think i mentioned that as an option.  I’m just saying that if they’re going to trade Shaq and go that direction they need to get someone who fits in their eight man playoff rotation.  So they’ve got to trade SOMEONE.  How about Shaq for Shawn Marion and Howard.  Does that work?  Would the Mavs do it?

Matt: Not in a million years.

Dan: Yea okay so maybe I’m not quite awake yet.  I think they should trade Shaq to the TrailBrazers for someone and someone (but mostly Juwan Howard cause holy crap he dunked on Marcus Camby HARD a few nights ago.  And yes, the one from West Wing is who I mean).

Me (Ben): They can really only trade Shaq to a terrible team that is looking for expiring contracts but has decent pieces. There’s only one team that fits that description: the Knicks. Who on the Knicks would help them win right away? David Lee? Too similar to Varejao. Al Harrington? Too terrible defensively and mercurial. Nate Robinson? Can’t get a gunner who needs the ball in his hands to play with LeBron. I do see one player on the Knicks that would be perfect for the Cavs. Daniloa Gallinari. Put him at the 4 and suddenly you have another dead-eye shooter to space the floor, but one who’s big enough to guard the 4. But would the Knicks trade the only guy they really like? Furthermore, the only big nonexpiring contracts they could unload are Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries. Doubtful the Cavs take on those two guys.

The only other option I see is trading Shaq to the Rockets. I know this sounds crazy, but what about Shaq for TMac, straight up. Both contracts expiring. TMac won’t play with this Rocket bunch. Houston has no size right now. (At least not vertical size. Chuck Hayes is pretty wide.) What about LeBron TMac on the wings. It’d be a risk, but it might be a good one.

But here’s what I think the Cavs really should do. Salary Cap for next year is $58 million. As it stands now, the Cavs are on the books for $50 million, as Shaq and Z are expiring. I think you gotta get one more big expiring contract and then get Bosh or Wade for next year. What about Varejao, Delonte, and JJ Hickson to Portland for Darius Miles’ contract and Steve Blake, who’s also in the last year of his deal. Salaries match up. Portland needs big man help with all their injuries and Blake lost his starting job. Losing Varejao might hurt Cleveland short run, but Blake is a solid PG who can guard both 1s and 2s, allowing them to go small and move LeBron over. Most importantly, next year the Cavs would drop $21 million under the cap, perfect to sign Bosh or Wade. Furthermore, you can always find Varejao replacements late in the draft. See Blair, DeJuan.

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Winter Doldrums

January 5, 2010 at 11:09 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA, Rants and Raves

Each year at the beginning and end of the season, games mostly go according to form. The good teams beat the bad teams, with decent squads fighting it out in between. However, wacky things always happen in December and January, with uncharacteristic upsets seeming unusually common. In only the past week and a half, the Magic lost to the Pacers and Bulls, the Cavs dropped one at home to the Bobcats, the Celtics were beaten by both the Clippers and Warriors, the Hawks lost at home to the Knicks and got blown out by the Heat, and the Lakers almost fell to the Kings (twice).

Now, there are several reasons as to why this occurs. The NBA season is so long that even though the players are professionals, it’s hard for them to bring maximum effort every night. For the league’s best teams, it’s difficult to get fired up emotionally for every game, especially if you consistently blow out your opponents. For example, when Pau Gasol returned from injury the Lakers won 16 of 17 games by around 13 points per contest. Then they had several tough battles against poor teams. Not to mention that the top franchises always receive their opponents’ utmost, as everyone wants to knock down the champs.

Furthermore, teams have to account for nagging injuries and poor shooting nights. Coaches may start to rest star players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. These are some of the valid explanations for mid-season slip-ups.

But how about another theory that may never have been posited before? How about the SAD theory? I know this sounds a bit goofy, but SAD is actually an acronym standing for Seasonal Affective Disorder, a medically recognized mood disorder. It is caused by, among other things, a decrease in melatonin due to less sunlight during the winter months, and it is characterized by depressive symptoms.

For those of you who think SAD is a bunch of BS, I can attest to its legitimacy. I experienced it myself during the first real week of winter my freshman year at Columbia. Growing up on the West Coast, I was shocked by how brutal it could be, and I spent a good week not leaving my dorm, not changing out of my pajamas, and not eating anything but Chinese delivery. (Thank god for lunch specials.) People who know me know that I am almost always extremely happy. So SAD was a surprise to me and them, and SAD exists.

Can’t SAD, then, explain some of the ostensibly unexplainable outcomes at this point in the NBA season? One night Kobe might rather read a book than a defense. One week LeBron might rather dunk cookies than basketballs. One month Dwight might rather watch Seinfeld reruns than Grunfeld’s team run. If any of these things happen, losses to worse squads don’t seem so surprising.

Players would never admit it, but maybe sometimes they’re just down, just SAD. In a league filled with athletes so competitive and skilled, the slightest deficit in energy and intensity could be enough to turn an easy win into a disconcerting loss.

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