Trouble Bruin

November 27, 2009 at 12:59 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under College Hoops

You can’t win ‘em all. But certain teams should never lose like this.

After watching UCLA get dismantled by the Portland Pilots 74-47 last night, the Bruins’ worst loss since 2003, I asked myself how this could possibly happen? How could the most celebrated program in America fall to such depths, just two years removed from three consecutive Final Fours?

I know that fluke upsets happen in sports. Gimme-your-lunch-money beatdowns? Only in sitcoms is the bully supposed to be turned into the wimp.

No, this game wasn’t a fluke. This was further evidence that the 2009-10 version of UCLA isn’t very good. However, I was too distressed while watching the game to really think critically about it. I walked away from the television without a strong grasp on the reasons precipitating the Bruins’ decline. So this morning my dad and I decided to break down their plight and pinpoint its causes.

My father’s first instinct was that UCLA is now suffering from a lack of talent. He attributed this dearth to two things: coach Ben Howland’s grind-it-out style being unattractive to top recruits and stars leaving early for the NBA. I’ll admit that there is some truth to this theory. John Calipari’s dribble drive motion offense, for example, particularly showcases individual talent, and Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and Jrue Holiday could all still be suiting up in blue and gold.

However, UCLA’s winning tradition has always been enough to lure blue-chip high-schoolers, and every big time program has dealt with one-and-done guys. The Bruins’ 2008 recruiting class was ranked #1 by ESPN and their 2009 class was ranked 13th. Though they are currently playing without the best player from each class (Holiday and injured Tyler Honeycutt), there should still be plenty of talent on the floor. (At least enough talent to keep up with the likes of Portland and Cal State Fullerton.)

We therefore determined that there had to be something more. After studying statistics and mentally reviewing game film, I discovered the root of UCLA’s issues: point guard play.

If you look at Howland’s very successful teams, they’ve all had one constant feature. They’ve been led by tough, quick, feisty points guards who dictated tempo on both sides of the ball. From Brandon Knight at Pittsburgh to Jordan Farmar and Darren Collison at UCLA, they were all able to put pressure on the opposition by harassing rival point men and attacking offensively. The point guard is supposed to set the tone on the defense, forcing the other offense to start its sets uncomfortably far from the basket. He must also run Howland’s many plays smoothly and authoritatively, making smart decisions with the ball while being a threat to score.

I hate to foist the problems of an entire team on one young man, but Jerime Anderson isn’t that guy, and thus UCLA must suffer. He was highly touted coming in, but he hasn’t yet figured it out. On the season Anderson is shooting 29%, has more turnovers than assists, and hasn’t been that necessary defensive pest. Against Portland, the Bruins consistently settled for poor shots after running ineffective offense, whereas the Pilots (and point guard TJ Campbell) got whatever they wanted.

Unless Anderson finds a way to dial up his defensive pressure and better control the offense, UCLA is going to have a very long season.

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Easy Like Sunday Morning

November 13, 2009 at 8:31 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under Game Analysis, Lakers

That’s the way it seemed for the Lakers when they beat up on the Suns last night. The final score of 121-102 does not even come close to describing the extent of Los Angeles’ domination. This was more lopsided than the hunchback of Notre Dame, and no, I’m not referring to Charlie Weis.

What a disappointing outcome for Phoenix, a team that had started the season 8-1 and was trying to establish themselves as legitimate contenders to the Lakers’ crown. Feeling rejuvenated, the new old Suns believed that they could compete with anyone.

News flash: They can’t.

They will have serious trouble against any decent team with a large, scoring center. I don’t mean just any good big man, but rather a strong 7-footer with skills to boot.

I’m not making this judgment based solely on the Laker game; that would be rash and unfair. However, if you look at this season’s young history, you will see a disconcerting trend emerging. The Suns, who went to Boston and took down the previously unbeaten Celtics, get thrown off their game when dealing with a behemoth.

Let’s start with the game last night. Los Angeles outscored Phoenix 78-48 in the paint. Andrew Bynum went off, totaling 26 points and 15 rebounds, while the entire team shot 58% from the field and 50% from downtown. This wasn’t a fluke lucky shooting game either, as the Lakers repeatedly found very good looks at the basket. They played inside-out, moved the ball, and allowed Bynum to manhandle Channing Frye, Amare Stoudemire, or whoever else tried to stand in his way. The Suns don’t have a post defender capable of making life tough for big guys, not to mention stopping them. Furthermore, if you have to double hard every possession, you will give up open shots and get tired constantly trying to rotate.

The defensive issues, though, may not even be what hurts Phoenix the most. Against the Lakers, the Suns were often taken completely out of their offensive rhythm. I attribute this to two things. Firstly, it is much harder to push the tempo after permitting a made basket. I know that the Suns still try to run, and they do so more effectively than other teams in the league, but they’re less potent after a miss. Secondly, Phoenix was found scrambling on defense a lot more than usual, which again makes it more difficult to score in transition. When you need to worry extra about rotating and boxing out, you aren’t as ready to run. All this was evident as the Suns struggled to reach the century mark on the scoreboard.

Phoenix seemed oddly uncomfortable and forced the action more than usual. They took uncharacteristic shots and looked frustrated.

Prior to the Laker game, the Suns had faced two other teams with dominant big men, the Magic and the Clippers (this isn’t your mother’s Chris Kaman). Orlando also blew out Phoenix, winning 122-100 behind Dwight Howard’s 25 points in 23 minutes. They barely beat the lowly Clippers by 2, as Kaman dropped 22 and 9.

What about the Celtics? you ask. Kevin Garnett is a great offensive big man. I’ll reiterate what I mentioned earlier, though. The Celtics do not have a scoring center. Garnett is long and has a bevy of moves, but he won’t go through or over people. Despite Channing and Amare’s defensive limitations, they won’t get physically eaten up by KG. That slight distinction is enough to cause a world of difference.

I also know that this criticism was made several years ago, when Mike D’Antoni held the reigns to Phoenix’s wild horses, but this time around they were hoping it would be different. Alvin Gentry is supposedly trying to instill the ability to play defense in specific bunches, and to do so in a way that hides their lack of size. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be working yet.

Here’s the good news: Not the many teams own the type of player that destroys the Suns, so they should have a very successful regular season.

The bad news: They still won’t be able to get out of the West.

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Where Do We Go From Here

November 9, 2009 at 8:04 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA

Everyone knows that the NBA is season is very long and championships are definitely not won in November. Teams are still jelling, coaches are figuring things out, and players are reestablishing their rhythms.

However, you can make certain critical evaluations after just a few games, and you can either make or break a season depending on the consequent adjustments.

I’ve scoured game tape and statistics of every team in the NBA, uncovering both positives and negatives. Here, I present what I believe to be each squad’s best feature at this point in the season, as well as one area in which they need to improve if they want to ultimately succeed.

EAST

Boston Celtics (7-1)

Best Feature: So many it’s hard to choose, but most impressive might be how smoothly they’ve incorporated the new guys, ‘Sheed, Shelden, and Marquis.

Improvement Area: I hate to nitpick when they are beating teams by an average of 14 points. However, Garnett doesn’t look completely comfortable on the offensive end yet.

Miami Heat (5-1)

Best Feature: They are forcing opponents to shoot terribly against them, especially from behind the arc (25%).

Improvement Area: They’re still too reliant on Wade for offense. At some point they might need to trust Michael Beasley.

Atlanta Hawks (5-2)

Best Feature: Jamal Crawford is a huge upgrade over Flip Murray playing the role of scorer off the bench. His firepower has already been a key to several wins.

Improvement Area: Though they’re making strides, Crawford, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson have not quite kicked the habit of going one-on-one a little too often.

Orlando Magic (5-2)

Best Feature: They are ridiculously deep, which has enabled them to start strong even though they have missed key elements with injuries (Vince Carter and Mickael Pietrus) and suspension (Rashard Lewis.)

Improvement Area: Teams are getting to the free throw line against them, and Dwight Howard has been in foul trouble more than ever.

Chicago Bulls (4-2)

Best Feature: Luol Deng is back from his injury and as good as ever. He gives them a versatility on the wing that they lacked last year.

Improvement Area: John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich need to start hitting from downtown to make room for Derrick Rose’s slashing.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4-3)

Best Feature: LeBron is still awesome! (I wish there was more good news but there’s not.)

Improvement Area: Shaq and Varejao don’t know how to play together effectively. This was a common concern entering the season and it has proven legitimate.

Milwaukee Bucks (3-2)

Best Feature: The supposed “gamble” on Brandon Jennings seems to be working out. Jennings is sometimes erratic but always electric.

Improvement Area: Michael Redd cannot find his stroke (32%), and they’re definitely going to need his scoring.

Toronto Raptors (3-3)

Best Feature: Bargnani is really trying to silence the haters and justify his #1 pick. He’s shooting lights out from all over the court and playing tougher down low.

Improvement Area: They are missing the fifth piece of their starting lineup. Coach Jay Triano has not showed much confidence in rookie DeMar DeRozan, and neither Antoine Wright nor Marco Belinelli are the answer.

Charlotte Bobcats (3-3)

Best Feature: They are killing teams on the boards, pulling down almost 7 more rebounds than their foes, which is good for second in the league.

Improvement Area: Charlotte is the NBA’s sloppiest team, turning the ball over more than 18 times per game. Three individual players, Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, and Boris Diaw, all cough up the rock at least three times.

Philadelphia 76ers (3-3)

Best Feature: Though still inconsistent, Lou Williams is showing signs that he might be a competent starting point guard. Additionally, Marreese Speights appears to have serious all-star potential.

Improvement Area: The Elton Brand experiment does not look any more promising in year two. Either he hasn’t actually recovered from the injury or he’s just a terrible fit.

Detroit Pistons (3-4)

Best Feature: They have multiple guards/wings who can put the ball in the cup.

Improvement Area: By far last in the league in assists, evidence of a selfish, stagnant offense. (But what did you expect when their big off-season signing was Ben Gordon?)

Indiana Pacers (2-3)

Best Feature: Roy Hibbert looks pretty good manning the middle, posting three straight double-doubles and blocking shots.

Improvement Area: Besides Danny Granger, can anyone hit a 3 on this team? I guess Troy Murphy usually shoots the ball well, but Dahntay Jones, TJ Ford, and Brandon Rush have no range at all. How are they going to have any floor spacing?

Washington Wizards (2-5)

Best Feature: Arenas is finally healthy! He looks fluid and can still fill it up with the best of them.

Improvement Area: Arenas is finally healthy. He’s back to his old tendencies of attempting questionable shots and turning the ball over. The Wiz were hoping that a couple years watching from the sidelines would help him play smarter, but so far that hasn’t been the case.

New York Knicks (1-6)

Best Feature: Danilo Gallinari has been a real bright spot in Madison Square, unleashing that beautiful stroke.

Improvement Area: They are undersized and getting absolutely smashed on the glass.

New Jersey Nets (0-7)

Best Feature: Well, they’ve been close in a couple games. And Brook Lopez is the real deal.

Improvement Area: Devin Harris is a very good player, but he seems to be significantly lacking in the area of team leadership. If someone’s going to rally these guys, it’s gotta be him.

WEST

LA Lakers (6-1)

Best Feature: Andrew Bynum has apparently made that next step towards greatness, averaging 20 and 10 in the early going.

Improvement Area: They go through periods of extreme laziness on defense and impatience on offense.

Phoenix Suns (6-1)

Best Feature: They are incredibly balanced offensively, with 6 players scoring more than 13 points/game.

Improvement Area: Next to miserable Memphis, they have the worst turnover differential in the league at -2.8. On such a potent team, those squandered possessions could be huge.

Denver Nuggets (5-2)

Best Feature: Carmelo is playing like a man on a mission. He has taken his game to another level. And Tyrannosaurus Lawson is a fantastic backup sparkplug.

Improvement Area: They need to maintain consistency in all facets of the game.

Dallas Mavericks (4-2)

Best Feature: Shawn Marion is a great fit for the Mavs, on both ends of the court.

Improvement Area: Though Jason Kidd has lost more than a step, he’s going to need to figure out how to be more of a scoring threat. Right now he’s just a spot-up shooter.

Houston Rockets (4-2)

Best Feature: They are better than the sum of their parts because they are coached well and give maximum effort.

Improvement Area: When Aaron Brooks isn’t creating, their offense struggles mightily. Trevor Ariza is trying to become a go-to guy, but he’s not quite there yet.

Portland Trail Blazers (4-3)

Best Feature: They are playing pretty well in spite of Nate McMillan’s constant lineup tinkering. That’s because they’ve got a lot of versatile guys that can play multiple positions and guard multiple positions (think Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Andre Miller)

Improvement Area: Which of the role players is going to step up and become the third major option besides Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge? So far it’s been a different man each night, but Portland is going to need one to be consistent.

Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3)

Best Feature: They are playing unbelievably better defense than last year. In particular, Kevin Durant is making a point of committing on the defensive end.

Improvement Area: They need more inside/outside offensive balance. At the moment, they have barely any post presence.

LA Clippers (3-4)

Best Feature: Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon are not only effective, but efficient. The pair is scoring 42 points/game while both are shooting over 50%.

Improvement Area: Al Thornton has seemingly regressed, which is bad news considering he was supposed to be an important part of the Clips’ future. Rasual Butler is a more than solid backup, but he’s not a viable starter.

Sacramento Kings (3-4)

Best Feature: Their recent draft experts should be proud. Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes all have very promising futures.

Improvement Area: Their best offensive player, Kevin Martin, is an awful defender, and the rest of his mates are not so good either.

San Antonio Spurs (2-3)

Best Feature: Like typical Gregg Popovich teams, these Spurs don’t beat themselves by turning the ball over or taking bad shots.

Improvement Area: The Spurs have more corrections to make than any other contender. They appear to sincerely miss Bruce Bowen on the defensive end, as they are giving up more points than they have this decade. On the other side of the ball, Duncan and Ginobili seem somewhat out of sorts. Is age or injury finally catching up? Or is it that all the off-season moves that looked good on paper are failing on the court.

Utah Jazz (2-4)

Best Feature: Deron Williams is continually getting better and better.

Improvement Area: They’ve lost that characteristic toughness that was once synonymous with coach Jerry Sloan.

New Orleans Hornets (2-5)

Best Feature: This team has quickly gotten rather uncompetitive, but I guess Chris Paul’s 3 point shooting (68%) has been a pleasant surprise.

Improvement Area: Chris Paul is enough to win them a decent amount of games, but the Hornets’ supporting cast stinks. So maybe they should hustle more or focus on defense.

Golden State Warriors (1-4)

Best Feature: Their roster includes my erstwhile favorite Laker, Ronny Turiaf. My jersey is now a collector’s item.

Improvement Area: They take the term “matador defense” to a whole new level. My cereal defends against my spoon with more effort than the Warriors. They allow 115 points and 51% shooting. GUARD SOMEBODY!!!

Memphis Grizzlies (1-6)

Best Feature: Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol look great offensively, and OJ Mayo has flashes of brilliance. And it’s encouraging that they’re the youngest team in the league.

Improvement Area: I don’t think they understand the concept of “team.” Best case scenario: Iverson’s permanent leave prompts a reevaluation of chemistry and they develop a strong sense of ubuntu.

Minnesota Timberwolves (1-6)

Best Feature: They were lucky enough to play the Nets in their first game and thus obtain a victory. They also only lost by two to Boston (though I’m not sure how).

Improvement Area: Try to get Al Jefferson some easier looks by moving him to different spots on the floor. Defenses have been keying on him and making his life miserable.

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Big Runningbaby?

November 5, 2009 at 2:06 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA, Rants and Raves

Breaking news: Glen Davis has aspirations to be like Mike. The strange thing is that he isn’t trying to emulate Air Jordan on the hardwood. Instead, the injured Celtics’ forward also wants to make a mid-career sport switch, Chris Broussard reports.

But he’s not headed to the baseball diamond. No, Big Baby believes he has a future on the gridiron.

So will that make him Big Runningbaby? Big Quarterbaby? He doesn’t seem to care. “It don’t matter,” he said. “I just want to play.”

We at Ballershorts are not interested in Davis’ ability to succeed in the NFL. We are concerned with how this announcement will impact his current job. Don’t worry, he’s not planning to leave anytime soon. The 23-year-old intends to become an NBA All-Star before making his move. However, there will probably be earlier ramifications.

Davis’ contract runs for two more years, at which point he will be evaluated differently if teams take this football goal seriously. Would someone risk a long-term deal with significant guaranteed money on a player who could potentially bolt for the NFL? I guess they could add a contract clause that insures against such a maneuver, but teams would still be wary of giving any big bucks to someone who is questionably committed to the cause.

Front offices might also reconsider Davis’ place on a roster. GMs don’t like to have players with “character issues” as building blocks of their squads. While Davis doesn’t have those types of problems, a possible desertion could be viewed in the same light. Even if he does develop All-Star caliber, teams would most likely rather take in a veteran completely focused on hoops or develop a promising young guy. They might not want to become dependent on Davis for fear of him leaving them in the lurch. (Don’t you think Chicago might have made some provisions if they had known about Jordan’s departure?)

For Davis, this could mean less money and a less prominent position. On the other hand, he could then be a potential steal for an NBA franchise. A team could nab Big Baby for cheap as a quality role player, a similar situation to, hmm, what the Celtics did this year with Rasheed Wallace?

Then again, two years is a long time, especially in a sports world that produces a scandal a second. By the time Davis is negotiating a new deal, his statements may have long faded into the obscure recesses of memory. Or maybe he’ll already be receiving offers from the Patriots.

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I’ve Managed to Use Overalls for the Third Straight Time…

November 4, 2009 at 2:51 am · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA, Rants and Raves

My ongoing endeavor to incorporate overalls into my costume for 10 consecutive years aside, Ballershorts deserves some Halloween love. I know that the spooktacular holiday is, like, sooo last weekend, but I’m a big fan of extending celebrations as long as possible. Ever since my freshman floormate turned his birthday into the eight days of Shaunuka, I have tried to take full advantage and more of every festivity. Eating matzah pizza in June? C’mon, we’re finally free!

The first week of the NBA season has surely seen it’s share of scary, such as Charlotte’s shooting and Phil Jackson’s accidental finger food,  but there has also been good and plenty of sweet, including the Celtics’ defense and Orlando’s role players. So let’s play a little game called “Trick or Treat:” I’m going to decide whether the following interesting early storylines will develop into continuing trends (Treat) or whether they are merely pretend (Trick).

Chris Bosh putting up MVP-caliber numbers: TREAT

While the Toronto Raptors remain enigmatic, their leading man has simply been dominant, to the tune of 31 points and 15 boards per game. Now it’s time to put the KiBOSH on the idea that his performance will fall off. There are two major reasons for this explosion. First and foremost, he’s playing for a contract here. Bosh is a member of the heralded free agents class of 2010 that includes LeBron and D-Wade, and the man wants to get paid! Over the last couple years there have been questions about his durability and heart. He wants to repudiate any naysayers and land a maximum deal. Furthermore, he is surrounded by better shooters than in years past, which gives him more room to operate in the paint and pinch post. Of course his numbers through three games are ungodly, but expect 25 and 12.

The Houston Rockets winning 75% of their games: TRICK

I’m honestly very impressed by their play thus far, as I had anticipated them getting destroyed by the good teams in the West. However, before long the victories will stop coming this quickly. Firstly, the Rockets’ style is not conducive to winning consistently throughout a long NBA season. They are undersized and less skilled than most teams, so they win by fighting and scrapping and hustling. Over the long haul, that wears you down, especially if you don’t have go-to guys to get you through tough situations and close calls. Additionally, Houston is arguably the squad most different from last year; Right now they are without Yao, TMac, and Artest, who were by far the three most important offensive players. Some may argue that there should be an adjustment period for these Rockets, but I contend that that is more significant for their opponents. At the moment this Houston team is an unpredictable, unknown quantity. The NBA is a league of such scouting and preparation. As the collection of film and statistics grows, the competition will have an increasingly easier time. Lastly, the Rockets are shooting 45% from behind the arc – Trevor Ariza in particular is burning down the house, hitting 52% and over 3 per game – which will doubtlessly decline. Teams just don’t stay that hot for an entire year. I predict 43 wins, give or take.

Derrick Rose’s sophomore slump: TRICK

Rose and his Bulls have struggled a bit at the outset, and Derrick’s numbers are down across the board. But don’t be fooled! Rose had an ankle injury that cost him much of the preseason and isn’t yet completely healed. Moreover, Chicago is a very different team without Ben Gordon and with a revamped Luol Deng. As soon as Rose is back to full speed and this Chicago squad jells, he’ll once again be the dangerous playmaker he was last year.

Boston winning more games than the rest of the Atlantic Division: TREAT

To give you perspective, if the Celtics were to win 65 games, the 76ers, Knicks, Nets, and Raptors would have to average a measly 16 wins in order for this outcome to occur. So no, I don’t think it will actually happen. But it might be the closest we’ll ever get. This Boston team is playing out of its mind. You’ve heard of shutting the door defensively, right? Well these guys have had theirs closed and bolted all year. They might not even have a door at all. Not to mention they’re getting offensive contributions from everywhere. Tonight Garnett and Allen totaled 8 points and they still won by 31 against Philly! Are you kidding me? I guess having Shelden Williams as a backup big man is enough. While Doc Rivers’ crew is rolling, the other four teams seem mired in mud. New Jersey looks almost as bad as Elton Brand, and New York recently lost to a team shooting 36% on the year. On the bright side, the 76ers, Raptors, and Knicks are all averaging at least 105 points per game. Too bad they’re all allowing at least 109 and a half. Final shakeout: Boston – 68 wins, others – 84. Close but no cigar.

Spurs winning while Duncan barely scores: TRICK

Would you have ever believed it if I would have told you before the season that the Spurs would start 2-1, with Tim Duncan scoring 28 points in their loss but less than 10 in their two wins? Believe it now. Yes, ladies and gentleman, Duncan has scored 16 total points in San Antonio’s two victories. Here’s the argument for why the Spurs can win this year with modest offensive output from Timmy. They’re deeper and more talented than they’ve been in years due to offseason additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Manu Ginobili’s finally healthy. Tony Parker can lead the team offensively as long as Duncan anchors the defensive end. Here’s why I don’t believe that argument. Firstly, the Spurs’ two victories have come against the abysmal kings and the disheveled Hornets. Neither is an accurate indication of what San Antonio really needs to do this season. Furthermore, San Antonio’s style of play is predicated on efficient half-court offense. Duncan is their only inside scoring threat, and they need his production to maintain necessary balance. I also unfortunately expect Ginobili to go down at some point this year because he plays with such reckless abandon. The Spurs would still be a decent team if Duncan didn’t perform at his former level, but they would not be an elite team. He’s possibly the best power forward in history.

The Lakers’ inconsistent level of play: TREAT

There was chatter this offseason that Los Angeles might make a run at the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ win mark of 72. I didn’t buy it for a second, for the same reasons that I’ve come to expect ostensibly baffling inconsistency. First, complacency. No, I’m not claiming that they aren’t hungry to repeat as champions. What I’m saying is that they know they’re extremely good, and therefore they don’t always give maximum effort against lesser teams. Tonight they were up 13 in the first quarter against the Thunder, but trailed several minutes later. Why? Because they believed that OKC never posed a real threat, which caused them to be lazy on defensive rotations, sloppy with the ball, and negligent on the backboards. They trust too much in being able to “turn it on” at will. Secondly, they’re still figuring things out. There’s the obvious, newcomer Ron Artest’s role, and the less obvious, Andrew Bynum’s evolving abilities and responsibilities. Thirdly, with Pau Gasol out, (and it might be for a while since they just found a partial tear in his hamstring), we are likely to see more of ‘06 Kobe. It’s true that he trusts his teammates now, but Gasol is hands down the one he trusts the most. We just might see Kobe shoot the Lakers into and out of games. Finally, Phil Jackson barely cares about these early season games. He rarely calls timeouts, instead letting the players work out the kinks on the floor, and he throws out some wacky lineups to see what combinations may play well together. At one point against the Clippers, the Laker lineup was DJ Mbenga, Josh Powell, Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown. Hey, Phil has a pretty good track record of solving things by the end. The Lakers will still win a ton of games and look dominant for stretches, but there will also be plenty of head-scratchers.

Me going 10 years in overalls: TRICK

I would love to have more faith in myself in this arena, but I don’t know if it’s even possible. So far I’ve employed my overalls to dress up as Super Mario, a farmer, and a construction worker. I have ideas for the future, scarecrow for one, but the list isn’t long. I think I’ll make it to at least 5, but I can’t guarantee anything beyond that.

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Oden Part 2 (Skills Analysis)

November 1, 2009 at 12:19 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA

Below I wrote an article proposing a new statistical evaluation, a complete plus/minus analysis, and I applied it to a game of Greg Oden’s. However, I also took away valuable insight into the type of player Oden is, his strengths and weaknesses, and whether I think he will ultimately be able to excel.

First, the good. Oden is already an excellent rebounder on both ends of the court. He doesn’t miss box outs on the defensive end and he crashes the offensive glass hard. He also seems to have soft hands. He secures the ball well when rebounding and makes nice catches in traffic. Defensively, Oden has decent instincts when it comes to blocking shots and plays solid on-ball post defense. Offensively, he has an adequate drop-step move and he doesn’t force up bad shots (although that may be a product of his lack of confidence in his offensive abilities).

Right now, though, Oden seems to have more flaws than strengths. He is a relatively fluid athlete with good size and power, which allowed him to get away with defects in high school and college and still dominate. However, everyone in the NBA is hyper-athletic, so he can no longer rely on his body or hide his mistakes.

First and foremost, Oden is terrible at defending the pick and roll, which is the most commonly used offensive set in the league. He consistently gets caught in no man’s land, neither stepping up to help on the ball nor staying with his guy on the roll. I couldn’t tell whether he was supposed to hedge or open up or switch because he didn’t defend the screen-roll in any of the possible “correct” ways. If I were George Karl, I would’ve put Oden in a pick and roll situation almost every time down the court.

Oden is also inconsistent with his defensive rotations. He seems to generally understand where he is supposed to go, but he tends to arrive a fraction late. This often causes him to pick up cheap fouls and get in foul trouble. Remember, he is still adjusting to NBA speed, and he needs to anticipate more instead of reacting.

Oden has several clear offensive weaknesses, as well. He needs to vastly improve his footwork, he doesn’t attack the rim strongly enough, and he isn’t proficient at passing out of the double-team. He was repeatedly very slow up the court and he was never involved in a fast break. One thing that makes Dwight Howard a great big man, which Andrew Bynum is now figuring out, is how hard he runs the court. He consistently beats the defense to the block to get deep post position and also gets easy buckets in transition.

Lastly, and this really surprised me, Oden sets a lot of ineffective screens. There was one specific sequence when he was trying to free up Brandon Roy, but the defender was easily brushing by or running through Oden’s picks. He frequently sets up with bad shoulder angle, slightly turning his body away from the defender rather than being squarely perpendicular. While this may make the post-pick roll easier, it doesn’t impede the defender’s progress well enough.

So do I think Oden will become an all-star? I don’t know. I am keeping in mind that Yao only averaged 14 and 8 his first year, Dwight just 12 and 10. As I touched on earlier, it often takes big men several years longer than guards and wings to figure out the different level of the NBA. Over the last 15 years, 12 of the 17 Rookie of the Years – there were two co-winners – were guards. During that same period, 11 of the first overall picks in the draft were bona fide big men. Furthermore, many of Oden’s shortcomings are quite correctable by coaching. For example, his pick and roll D, his footwork, his screening ability, and his hustle up the floor can all be developed with the right teaching and practice. I firmly believe he will become a solid starter on a team that contends for a championship. Of course, he’ll have to stay healthy and motivated, and we’ll have to stay posted.

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Oden Part 1 (Plus/Minus)

November 1, 2009 at 11:30 am · by bteitelbaum · Filed under Game Analysis, NBA

Going into this NBA season, there were several things I was determined to learn more about, among them advanced stats and Greg Oden’s evolution as a player. Lately I’ve been reading a lot about such complex metrics as PER, adjusted plus/minus, and win shares. Each of these system’s proponents believes it is the best way to quantify player value. There’s definitely some worthwhile work being done, although I’m not yet sold on any of these barometers as truly accurate ways to measure effectiveness. Just like the computer polls in the BCS, there’s a human aspect missing. There are certain solid plays, such as setting strong screens, that go unrecorded in even the most expanded box scores. So it got me thinking, what would I discover if I closely watched game tape and documented every single play made by a specific player? Could I find out why Kevin Durant’s plus/minus is so bad and whether it is indicative of his performance?

Fortunately, there were a couple of good games on TV Thursday (the day I had this idea), one of them being Denver vs. Portland. What a lucky strike! I could analyze Greg Oden’s impact, both from a micro and macro perspective, allowing me to explore a new statistical method while scrutinizing a player I badly wanted to evaluate. So I set my Tivo, regrettably one minute and thirty seconds after the start of the game, and then sat down Friday afternoon to get to work. Oden’s final stat line in his team’s close loss: 2-5 from the field, 2-4 from the line, 6 points, 5 offensive rebounds, 4 defensive boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 1 turnover, 5 fouls. His standard plus/minus was +6. In fact, I was hoping that my stat would correlate well with and perhaps validate the plus/minus. Here’s how it played out.

• The system’s foundation: Let’s call it complete plus/minus, its goal being to determine precisely how much a player hurts or helps his team. Every move Oden made was assigned positive, negative, or neutral status. Positive plays included everything from the obvious, baskets scored, to the obscure, good box-outs. The negative ran the gamut from turnovers to not hustling back on D. The neutral occurred when he was not involved in a play or did something very basic such as reverse the ball during an offensive set. My instincts told me that particular actions were more useful or damaging than others, so I decided to create an arbitrarily weighted, and exceedingly simple, points scale.
• The system’s points scale: +2 for plays that lead directly to Blazer points or gaining possession from the Nuggets. +1 for positive plays that didn’t directly lead to the above consequences. 0 for neutral plays. -2 for plays that lead directly to Nugget points or turning the ball over. -1 for other negative plays.
• The results: Generally inconclusive (possibly due to the sample size of one). Surprisingly, Oden made the exact same number of positive and negative plays. I counted nine +2 and -2 plays, and sixteen +1 and -1 plays, leaving Oden’s complete plus/minus at 0. I’m still trying to figure out exactly what that means. Did Oden really hurt his team as much as he helped them? Was it just coincidence that his team scored more points while he was on the court?
• The system’s kinks: I would love some help from a stat guru to refine complete plus/minus. I admit that grading everything on a -2 to +2 scale is far too simplistic, that there should be a more nuanced weighting technique. Additionally, adding the human aspect allows for human error. What do we do about borderline positive or negative plays? Should every good screen or good box out be counted, even if it might not result in anything at all? Lastly, should we make adjustments for who the player is guarding, for example, which might affect even details of his play?
• The system’s weaknesses: There are obviously flaws to complete plus/minus, especially a major one that I acknowledge off the bat. Keeping this stat for every player would be nearly impossible due to the sheer effort and time required. Even hordes of men would have serious trouble.

I would love feedback on complete plus/minus, as it is clearly still a very nebulous system. Hopefully I’ll have enough time in the near future to analyze more games in this manner and reach make some further conclusions.

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