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May 20, 2010 at 12:44 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA
Yesterday I was playing a game of pickup at my local gym, guarded by a friendly acquaintance named Ray. Early on, I pulled up for a mid-range jumper against his lax defense, and upon release of the ball he yelled “NOPE” with smug assurance that I would miss.
As often happens when I shoot the J, the ball splashed the net and I trotted downcourt happily hollering, “Who said no? Who said no?” Ray just shook his head and smiled in mild embarrassment. He had made a fool of himself.
In a rather unserious game of pickup, the consequences of making a fool of yourself are minimal: a few good-natured jibes, some mocking high fives, and one frustrated overcompetitive guy.
In the NBA, on the other hand, the fallout is potentially enormous, involving millions of dollars and the fates of several franchises. These playoffs have exposed several stars as fools, which will no doubt fundamentally alter the course of this momentous offseason.
After the Phoenix Suns got eviscerated by the Lakers in Game 1, Amare Stoudemire decided it was the right time to talk some trash. He called Lamar Odom’s huge performance a “lucky game” and recalled his “total domination” of Pau Gasol several postseasons ago.
Flash forward to Game 2. Pau goes for 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists, Odom drops 17 and 11, and Amare’s rather underwhelming 18 points and 6 boards (accompanied by 5 turnovers) were not enough to prevent the Suns from losing 124-112. Not to mention that much of Pau and Lamar’s damage came when being defended directly by Stoudemire.
If you’re gonna talk, you better back it up, and Amare simply made himself look like a fool. He firmly turned the spotlight on himself, especially on the defensive end, and he threw up a clunker. Not only was he abused time and again, but he barely looked interested in trying to play any defense. Add to that his inability or unwillingness to consistently rebound and he suddenly does not seem like a superstar at all.
This summer Stoudemire has an opt-out option in his contract, whereby he could become an unrestricted free agent. I cannot see any way a General Manager would be willing to give him a maximum deal, particularly after this extremely exposed recent performance. He just isn’t a complete enough player to be a team’s cornerstone. Since he is going to make $17. 69 million next year if he stays with the Suns, it seems likely that he will not opt out and instead wait til the summer of 2011 to become a free agent. One less big name on the market. A little less hope for the bottom feeders with huge cap space.
Let’s talk about another fool: Joe Johnson. After five straight years of averaging about 20, 5, and 5, the Armadillo Cowboy had established himself as one of the premier perimeter players in the game. With free agency looming this summer, it was time for the Atlanta Hawks’ star to lead them on an inspired playoff run.
Instead, Atlanta almost faltered in Round 1 against an overmatched Milwaukee Bucks team and then played possum to the Orlando Magic’s big rig in the most lopsided playoff sweep in league history. Johnson was ineffective offensively, but maybe even more worrisome was his lack of leadership.
After Game 3 he was understandable frustrated, but he made the mistake of saying, “We could care less if [fans] showed up.” Disparaging the fans when you’re already disappointing them just isn’t the right move.
Furthermore, Johnson was quoted as claiming, “You almost have to play a perfect game to beat them… it’s tough to beat.” While that may have been true, you can’t say that as a team leader. Inspire your guys. Insist that you’re tough to beat. Be confident. Johnson’s leadership abilities were put to the test this postseason, and he practically failed.
So what are the implications for this summer? I don’t think Johnson can now be considered a top tier superstar, a player you can build a team around, which means he probably won’t receive max money. While unfortunate for Smooth Joe, this may be beneficial for a team looking to add a couple of new players through free agency. Could New York add LeBron, Chris Bosh, and Johnson? Perhaps.
We’ve taken a look at a couple of fools who have significantly hurt their stock this postseason, but as my college friends used to say, there’s a flip side to that coin.
Take Dwyane Wade for example. Cursed with by far the worst surrounding talent of any playoff team, Flash played his butt off this entire season, never complained, and somehow kept the Heat competitive all year long. Behavior like that is what makes Wade one of the indisputably best players in the league, completely deserving of the many millions of dollars that await him this summer.
I pity the fool. But not really. They should be smarter than that.
February 22, 2010 at 12:47 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA
As a UCLA Bruins fan, Darren Collison’s recent success is very exciting. As an NBA fan, it is rather surprising and unexpected.
After being taken by the New Orleans Hornets with the 21st pick in last year’s draft, Collison’s role was immediately evident: back up all-world point guard Chris Paul. He was supposed to play 8-10 minutes per game and not screw anything up. Maybe even be a spark.
Collison was not supposed to be carrying the Hornets during their playoff push, but a knee injury to Paul has forced the rookie into the spotlight. He hasn’t disappointed. In fact, he has been arguably as good as Paul, averaging 24 points, 9.6 assists, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.4 steals in the last 5 games, three of them New Orleans victories. And this for a team that has very little punch outside of David West.
Where is this coming from?
After watching him play four years in college, Collison’s production is honestly shocking. I didn’t think he was that good. At UCLA, he never quite lived up to the expectations, especially at the offensive end. Senior year he only averaged 14.4 points and 4.7 assists. He was never able to completely take over a game, and he seemed, for want of a better word, guardable. I thought that he would be able to hang defensively in the pros, but I assumed he would lack requisite strength/moves to be a reliable offensive option. Hey, you know what they say about assuming…
So how has Collison been this effective? Please help me out because I’m baffled, and I’m sure that New Orleans is also pleasantly surprised. I’ve unfortunately been unable to watch any recent Hornets games due to their lack of national TV coverage, so all I can do is surmise.
The only explanation I can muster is that the Hornets offense is conducive to point guard effectiveness. New Orleans gives you a steady diet of pick and roll basketball, and little else. Even though the pick and roll has become a staple of every team’s playbook, the Hornets employ it far more often than most. Furthermore, they run it almost exclusively with the point guard rather than with all of their wing players, giving Collison (or whomever) more opportunity to make decisions. So this could be system-based production, such as the quarterback stats at Texas Tech, instead of purely skill-based production.
Still, there’s no way Smush Parker would be putting up those sorts of numbers. There must be something about Collison that translates especially well to the NBA. Or perhaps watching Paul has given him better understanding of how to attack a defense. Or perhaps he’s somehow improved drastically since last year.
I will reserve final judgment until I can watch a few games, but I must reiterate how impressed and amazed I am with his recent outburst. Sports always manages to provide unlikely heroes.
February 17, 2010 at 11:02 am · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA
With the trade deadline less than 2 days away, we’ve heard a lot of rumor and speculation about various deals. Will Amare go to the Cavs? Will the Rockets ship T-Mac to the Knicks? There are so many “insiders” these days, but no one seems to know anything for sure.
On the other hand, the Los Angeles Clippers had barely been discussed as potential trademakers when swapped Marcus Camby for Portland’s Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake. Compared with the other possible moves, this deal seems as if it will have little impact on either team’s immediate title chances or long-term future.
It’s clear now that the Clips are willing to make moves, and I’m frankly surprised that the media has not even mentioned the prospect of trading Chris Kaman. In my opinion, the Clippers should be doing everything they can to get rid of their center.
Initially, this may appear like a questionable idea. The Clippers’ first all-star since Elton Brand in 2006, Kaman has quietly developed into a very reliable post scorer and rebounder, perhaps becoming LA’s best player. How many of you realize that he is averaging 19.6 points and 8.9 rebounds?
However, the Clippers have been stuck in neutral for several seasons. Despite recent serious offseason acquisitions (Baron Davis) and high draft picks (Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin), they really haven’t gotten any better. Some call it the Clipper Curse. Some blame it on owner Donald Sterling.
My culprit? Identity.
Every sports team needs an identity. The great squads’ identities are often immortalized with catchy nicknames, such as the Showtime Lakers or Greatest Show on Turf. But all successful teams, including the less heralded ones, also have a great sense of who they are. Take the Utah Jazz, who under Jerry Sloan have never won a title yet have been perennially competitive. They have always played tough, smart, and physical, with an offense largely predicated on pick-and-rolls.
Over the last few years, it has become readily apparent that the Clippers have no idea what they want to do on the court. Do they want to get up and down, running and gunning? Play inside-out? Play pressure defense? Or any D at all? Dunleavy’s Clippers are dealing with a crisis of identity as much as anything, which is a recipe for disaster.
How does trading Chris Kaman solve this problem? you ask. Looking at the current construction of the Clippers’ roster, especially after the Camby trade, it looks like they are built to play a fast-paced, open court game. Baron Davis’ athleticism and creativity are much more effective in the open court. Blake Griffin is an explosive Amare-type power forward who is much more dangerous on the break. Al Thornton is a suspect shooter with below average handle, but he is a very strong finisher at the rim. Travis Outlaw (whom the Clips should resign) is a tweener forward who can really get up and down the floor. And Eric Gordon has a diverse enough skill set to play any style of ball.
The odd man out is the slow 7-footer who likes to shoot jump hooks, no matter how solid those jump hooks are.
So who should the Clippers try to get in return for Kaman? I think they should try to clear more salary for the offseason, and then make a serious run at one (or even two) of the marquee free agents this summer. LeBron, D-Wade, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, and even Rudy Gay or David Lee would all fit the new style. Imagine a starting lineup of Baron, Gordon, Johnson, Griffin, and Lee. That team would suddenly be one of the top 3 teams in the West in terms of talent.
As it stands now, they’re going to have around $10 million of cap space, whereas the Knicks and Nets are going to have 20$ million. While there’s no guarantee to score big in the free agent market, the more money you have to play with, the more dangerous you are. Giving up Kaman’s $11 million – he has two years remaining on his deal – for expiring contracts would suddenly vault the Clippers right into the realm of the Knicks and Nets, giving them as many options as any team in the league.
Here are three potential trades, in order from what seems most likely to least likely:
1. Kaman to the Chicago Bulls for Brad Miller straight up: The Bulls have been complaining for years that they don’t have a post scorer to complement their perimeter players. While Joakim Noah and co. are nice rebounders/defenders/hustle guys, they can’t create their own offense down low. Kaman immediately alleviates that issue and gives the Bulls an inside presence. Since Kaman and Miller have essentially the same salary, this swap proves simple to make.
2. Kaman and Rasual Butler to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Etan Thomas and Matt Harpring: (Adding Butler to the trade is the only way to make the salaries match up, but since he is also becoming a free agent this offseason, it is inconsequential.) The Thunder have a great young core of Durant, Westbrook, Green, Harden, and Sefolosha. What they’re missing is a center who can score. (No, Nenad Krstic is not the answer.) For those of you who might think that OKC’s team would be better off playing uptempo basketball, they’ve been more successful this season when slowing the pace, playing solid D, and working for good shots. Though the Thunder have not been mentioned in any trade talks, they do have some young size like Serge Ibaka and BJ Mullens, and they are set to have some nice cap space this summer, this trade seems to make complete sense. They are not going to be competing for any of the top-tier free agents, and David Lee would not be a better fit here than Kaman.
3. Kaman, Butler, Sebastian Telfair, Craig Smith to the Houston Rockets for McGrady: (Again, had to throw in a few other expiring contracts to make the salaries match up.) This seems like a long shot. The Rockets are counting on Yao Ming returning to form, and a starting frontcourt including Kaman and Yao would be the slowest thing this side of Zydrunas Ilgauskas. On the other hand, Houston is doing all it can to unload McGrady, Kaman would be a pretty good insurance policy for Yao, and that big frontcourt would also control the boards, create matchup nightmares, and provide quite the deterrent for guards attacking the rim. It’s worth a thought, isn’t it?
While it’s looking unlikely that Kaman will be moved before the deadline, I reiterate that I’m surprised it hasn’t been discussed. Big, skilled centers who aren’t head cases are rare in this league. It’s unfortunate for the Clippers that he really doesn’t fit at all.
January 9, 2010 at 12:27 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA
It probably doesn’t come as a surprise that my friends and I like to discuss hoops. Well, yesterday my boy Dan sent out an email discussing future possibilities for LeBron. Here is the transcript of the ensuing conversation:
Dan: Here’s a free idea for your blog, loosely titled, why LeBron is in a unique position in basketball history:
He is definitely one of the two best players in the league. Unlike Kobe he has taken a team of absolute nobodies to the Finals (and yea I know that the East was damn weak that year, but like I said not wholly coherent). Unlike Jordan, everybody likes him and he doesn’t throw his teammates under the bus. Which brings me to my point. He has the skills, the credibility and the charisma to RUN his own team. He can, and should, tell his coach/GM to trade Shaq for another swingman/athletic
4, turn their team from the 2003 Pistons to the 2007 Suns (can you imagine LeBron bearing down on you EVERY time you miss a jumper) and try to win a title like that while his legs are fresh and he hasn’t taken so many hits that his ability to go to the hoop goes south faster than Brandon Jacob’s yds/carry average.
Like I said, not fully coherent, but a thought none-the-less. And admit it, an intriguing possibility.
Matt: Rebuttal:
Who are these “athletic 4s” of which you speak? Of actual impact players, there’s Bosh, Amare, Odom, Rashard Lewis, Anthony Randolph, Josh Smith (if we’re calling him a 4), Al Harrington, Blake Griffin’s ACLs, Beasley… and that’s kinda it. Sure, K-Mart circa 2000 and Matrix circa 2006 would’ve worked, as would T-Wolves Garnett.
Maybe you get somebody to take Shaq’s monster EC (21 mil). Maybe. But the Raps wouldn’t do it. The Suns wouldn’t, obviously. The Magic surely wouldn’t. The Hawks don’t need the cash. So, I’m saying this option is out.
As for swingmen… the Cavs already have Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, and Danny Green. These guys can all shoot and defend. I think they’re pretty set there. Not sure what you want to give up, and who you think you’ll get in return.
I have a better solution: Lebron becomes that athletic 4. Look at what Kobe has done this year with Pau out. LbJ is so much bigger and more athletic than 2009 Kobe, he could be a mix of Karl Malone, Magic Johnson, and pre-injury Amare. He could average 40.
He just needs to wait to do this until Kobe retires, so the Lakers can keep winning rings.
Dan: Well yea, LeBron being the 4 makes a lot of sense, and I think i mentioned that as an option. I’m just saying that if they’re going to trade Shaq and go that direction they need to get someone who fits in their eight man playoff rotation. So they’ve got to trade SOMEONE. How about Shaq for Shawn Marion and Howard. Does that work? Would the Mavs do it?
Matt: Not in a million years.
Dan: Yea okay so maybe I’m not quite awake yet. I think they should trade Shaq to the TrailBrazers for someone and someone (but mostly Juwan Howard cause holy crap he dunked on Marcus Camby HARD a few nights ago. And yes, the one from West Wing is who I mean).
Me (Ben): They can really only trade Shaq to a terrible team that is looking for expiring contracts but has decent pieces. There’s only one team that fits that description: the Knicks. Who on the Knicks would help them win right away? David Lee? Too similar to Varejao. Al Harrington? Too terrible defensively and mercurial. Nate Robinson? Can’t get a gunner who needs the ball in his hands to play with LeBron. I do see one player on the Knicks that would be perfect for the Cavs. Daniloa Gallinari. Put him at the 4 and suddenly you have another dead-eye shooter to space the floor, but one who’s big enough to guard the 4. But would the Knicks trade the only guy they really like? Furthermore, the only big nonexpiring contracts they could unload are Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries. Doubtful the Cavs take on those two guys.
The only other option I see is trading Shaq to the Rockets. I know this sounds crazy, but what about Shaq for TMac, straight up. Both contracts expiring. TMac won’t play with this Rocket bunch. Houston has no size right now. (At least not vertical size. Chuck Hayes is pretty wide.) What about LeBron TMac on the wings. It’d be a risk, but it might be a good one.
But here’s what I think the Cavs really should do. Salary Cap for next year is $58 million. As it stands now, the Cavs are on the books for $50 million, as Shaq and Z are expiring. I think you gotta get one more big expiring contract and then get Bosh or Wade for next year. What about Varejao, Delonte, and JJ Hickson to Portland for Darius Miles’ contract and Steve Blake, who’s also in the last year of his deal. Salaries match up. Portland needs big man help with all their injuries and Blake lost his starting job. Losing Varejao might hurt Cleveland short run, but Blake is a solid PG who can guard both 1s and 2s, allowing them to go small and move LeBron over. Most importantly, next year the Cavs would drop $21 million under the cap, perfect to sign Bosh or Wade. Furthermore, you can always find Varejao replacements late in the draft. See Blair, DeJuan.
January 5, 2010 at 11:09 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA, Rants and Raves
Each year at the beginning and end of the season, games mostly go according to form. The good teams beat the bad teams, with decent squads fighting it out in between. However, wacky things always happen in December and January, with uncharacteristic upsets seeming unusually common. In only the past week and a half, the Magic lost to the Pacers and Bulls, the Cavs dropped one at home to the Bobcats, the Celtics were beaten by both the Clippers and Warriors, the Hawks lost at home to the Knicks and got blown out by the Heat, and the Lakers almost fell to the Kings (twice).
Now, there are several reasons as to why this occurs. The NBA season is so long that even though the players are professionals, it’s hard for them to bring maximum effort every night. For the league’s best teams, it’s difficult to get fired up emotionally for every game, especially if you consistently blow out your opponents. For example, when Pau Gasol returned from injury the Lakers won 16 of 17 games by around 13 points per contest. Then they had several tough battles against poor teams. Not to mention that the top franchises always receive their opponents’ utmost, as everyone wants to knock down the champs.
Furthermore, teams have to account for nagging injuries and poor shooting nights. Coaches may start to rest star players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. These are some of the valid explanations for mid-season slip-ups.
But how about another theory that may never have been posited before? How about the SAD theory? I know this sounds a bit goofy, but SAD is actually an acronym standing for Seasonal Affective Disorder, a medically recognized mood disorder. It is caused by, among other things, a decrease in melatonin due to less sunlight during the winter months, and it is characterized by depressive symptoms.
For those of you who think SAD is a bunch of BS, I can attest to its legitimacy. I experienced it myself during the first real week of winter my freshman year at Columbia. Growing up on the West Coast, I was shocked by how brutal it could be, and I spent a good week not leaving my dorm, not changing out of my pajamas, and not eating anything but Chinese delivery. (Thank god for lunch specials.) People who know me know that I am almost always extremely happy. So SAD was a surprise to me and them, and SAD exists.
Can’t SAD, then, explain some of the ostensibly unexplainable outcomes at this point in the NBA season? One night Kobe might rather read a book than a defense. One week LeBron might rather dunk cookies than basketballs. One month Dwight might rather watch Seinfeld reruns than Grunfeld’s team run. If any of these things happen, losses to worse squads don’t seem so surprising.
Players would never admit it, but maybe sometimes they’re just down, just SAD. In a league filled with athletes so competitive and skilled, the slightest deficit in energy and intensity could be enough to turn an easy win into a disconcerting loss.
November 9, 2009 at 8:04 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA
Everyone knows that the NBA is season is very long and championships are definitely not won in November. Teams are still jelling, coaches are figuring things out, and players are reestablishing their rhythms.
However, you can make certain critical evaluations after just a few games, and you can either make or break a season depending on the consequent adjustments.
I’ve scoured game tape and statistics of every team in the NBA, uncovering both positives and negatives. Here, I present what I believe to be each squad’s best feature at this point in the season, as well as one area in which they need to improve if they want to ultimately succeed.
EAST
Boston Celtics (7-1)
Best Feature: So many it’s hard to choose, but most impressive might be how smoothly they’ve incorporated the new guys, ‘Sheed, Shelden, and Marquis.
Improvement Area: I hate to nitpick when they are beating teams by an average of 14 points. However, Garnett doesn’t look completely comfortable on the offensive end yet.
Miami Heat (5-1)
Best Feature: They are forcing opponents to shoot terribly against them, especially from behind the arc (25%).
Improvement Area: They’re still too reliant on Wade for offense. At some point they might need to trust Michael Beasley.
Atlanta Hawks (5-2)
Best Feature: Jamal Crawford is a huge upgrade over Flip Murray playing the role of scorer off the bench. His firepower has already been a key to several wins.
Improvement Area: Though they’re making strides, Crawford, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson have not quite kicked the habit of going one-on-one a little too often.
Orlando Magic (5-2)
Best Feature: They are ridiculously deep, which has enabled them to start strong even though they have missed key elements with injuries (Vince Carter and Mickael Pietrus) and suspension (Rashard Lewis.)
Improvement Area: Teams are getting to the free throw line against them, and Dwight Howard has been in foul trouble more than ever.
Chicago Bulls (4-2)
Best Feature: Luol Deng is back from his injury and as good as ever. He gives them a versatility on the wing that they lacked last year.
Improvement Area: John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich need to start hitting from downtown to make room for Derrick Rose’s slashing.
Cleveland Cavaliers (4-3)
Best Feature: LeBron is still awesome! (I wish there was more good news but there’s not.)
Improvement Area: Shaq and Varejao don’t know how to play together effectively. This was a common concern entering the season and it has proven legitimate.
Milwaukee Bucks (3-2)
Best Feature: The supposed “gamble” on Brandon Jennings seems to be working out. Jennings is sometimes erratic but always electric.
Improvement Area: Michael Redd cannot find his stroke (32%), and they’re definitely going to need his scoring.
Toronto Raptors (3-3)
Best Feature: Bargnani is really trying to silence the haters and justify his #1 pick. He’s shooting lights out from all over the court and playing tougher down low.
Improvement Area: They are missing the fifth piece of their starting lineup. Coach Jay Triano has not showed much confidence in rookie DeMar DeRozan, and neither Antoine Wright nor Marco Belinelli are the answer.
Charlotte Bobcats (3-3)
Best Feature: They are killing teams on the boards, pulling down almost 7 more rebounds than their foes, which is good for second in the league.
Improvement Area: Charlotte is the NBA’s sloppiest team, turning the ball over more than 18 times per game. Three individual players, Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, and Boris Diaw, all cough up the rock at least three times.
Philadelphia 76ers (3-3)
Best Feature: Though still inconsistent, Lou Williams is showing signs that he might be a competent starting point guard. Additionally, Marreese Speights appears to have serious all-star potential.
Improvement Area: The Elton Brand experiment does not look any more promising in year two. Either he hasn’t actually recovered from the injury or he’s just a terrible fit.
Detroit Pistons (3-4)
Best Feature: They have multiple guards/wings who can put the ball in the cup.
Improvement Area: By far last in the league in assists, evidence of a selfish, stagnant offense. (But what did you expect when their big off-season signing was Ben Gordon?)
Indiana Pacers (2-3)
Best Feature: Roy Hibbert looks pretty good manning the middle, posting three straight double-doubles and blocking shots.
Improvement Area: Besides Danny Granger, can anyone hit a 3 on this team? I guess Troy Murphy usually shoots the ball well, but Dahntay Jones, TJ Ford, and Brandon Rush have no range at all. How are they going to have any floor spacing?
Washington Wizards (2-5)
Best Feature: Arenas is finally healthy! He looks fluid and can still fill it up with the best of them.
Improvement Area: Arenas is finally healthy. He’s back to his old tendencies of attempting questionable shots and turning the ball over. The Wiz were hoping that a couple years watching from the sidelines would help him play smarter, but so far that hasn’t been the case.
New York Knicks (1-6)
Best Feature: Danilo Gallinari has been a real bright spot in Madison Square, unleashing that beautiful stroke.
Improvement Area: They are undersized and getting absolutely smashed on the glass.
New Jersey Nets (0-7)
Best Feature: Well, they’ve been close in a couple games. And Brook Lopez is the real deal.
Improvement Area: Devin Harris is a very good player, but he seems to be significantly lacking in the area of team leadership. If someone’s going to rally these guys, it’s gotta be him.
WEST
LA Lakers (6-1)
Best Feature: Andrew Bynum has apparently made that next step towards greatness, averaging 20 and 10 in the early going.
Improvement Area: They go through periods of extreme laziness on defense and impatience on offense.
Phoenix Suns (6-1)
Best Feature: They are incredibly balanced offensively, with 6 players scoring more than 13 points/game.
Improvement Area: Next to miserable Memphis, they have the worst turnover differential in the league at -2.8. On such a potent team, those squandered possessions could be huge.
Denver Nuggets (5-2)
Best Feature: Carmelo is playing like a man on a mission. He has taken his game to another level. And Tyrannosaurus Lawson is a fantastic backup sparkplug.
Improvement Area: They need to maintain consistency in all facets of the game.
Dallas Mavericks (4-2)
Best Feature: Shawn Marion is a great fit for the Mavs, on both ends of the court.
Improvement Area: Though Jason Kidd has lost more than a step, he’s going to need to figure out how to be more of a scoring threat. Right now he’s just a spot-up shooter.
Houston Rockets (4-2)
Best Feature: They are better than the sum of their parts because they are coached well and give maximum effort.
Improvement Area: When Aaron Brooks isn’t creating, their offense struggles mightily. Trevor Ariza is trying to become a go-to guy, but he’s not quite there yet.
Portland Trail Blazers (4-3)
Best Feature: They are playing pretty well in spite of Nate McMillan’s constant lineup tinkering. That’s because they’ve got a lot of versatile guys that can play multiple positions and guard multiple positions (think Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Andre Miller)
Improvement Area: Which of the role players is going to step up and become the third major option besides Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge? So far it’s been a different man each night, but Portland is going to need one to be consistent.
Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3)
Best Feature: They are playing unbelievably better defense than last year. In particular, Kevin Durant is making a point of committing on the defensive end.
Improvement Area: They need more inside/outside offensive balance. At the moment, they have barely any post presence.
LA Clippers (3-4)
Best Feature: Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon are not only effective, but efficient. The pair is scoring 42 points/game while both are shooting over 50%.
Improvement Area: Al Thornton has seemingly regressed, which is bad news considering he was supposed to be an important part of the Clips’ future. Rasual Butler is a more than solid backup, but he’s not a viable starter.
Sacramento Kings (3-4)
Best Feature: Their recent draft experts should be proud. Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes all have very promising futures.
Improvement Area: Their best offensive player, Kevin Martin, is an awful defender, and the rest of his mates are not so good either.
San Antonio Spurs (2-3)
Best Feature: Like typical Gregg Popovich teams, these Spurs don’t beat themselves by turning the ball over or taking bad shots.
Improvement Area: The Spurs have more corrections to make than any other contender. They appear to sincerely miss Bruce Bowen on the defensive end, as they are giving up more points than they have this decade. On the other side of the ball, Duncan and Ginobili seem somewhat out of sorts. Is age or injury finally catching up? Or is it that all the off-season moves that looked good on paper are failing on the court.
Utah Jazz (2-4)
Best Feature: Deron Williams is continually getting better and better.
Improvement Area: They’ve lost that characteristic toughness that was once synonymous with coach Jerry Sloan.
New Orleans Hornets (2-5)
Best Feature: This team has quickly gotten rather uncompetitive, but I guess Chris Paul’s 3 point shooting (68%) has been a pleasant surprise.
Improvement Area: Chris Paul is enough to win them a decent amount of games, but the Hornets’ supporting cast stinks. So maybe they should hustle more or focus on defense.
Golden State Warriors (1-4)
Best Feature: Their roster includes my erstwhile favorite Laker, Ronny Turiaf. My jersey is now a collector’s item.
Improvement Area: They take the term “matador defense” to a whole new level. My cereal defends against my spoon with more effort than the Warriors. They allow 115 points and 51% shooting. GUARD SOMEBODY!!!
Memphis Grizzlies (1-6)
Best Feature: Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol look great offensively, and OJ Mayo has flashes of brilliance. And it’s encouraging that they’re the youngest team in the league.
Improvement Area: I don’t think they understand the concept of “team.” Best case scenario: Iverson’s permanent leave prompts a reevaluation of chemistry and they develop a strong sense of ubuntu.
Minnesota Timberwolves (1-6)
Best Feature: They were lucky enough to play the Nets in their first game and thus obtain a victory. They also only lost by two to Boston (though I’m not sure how).
Improvement Area: Try to get Al Jefferson some easier looks by moving him to different spots on the floor. Defenses have been keying on him and making his life miserable.
November 5, 2009 at 2:06 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA, Rants and Raves
Breaking news: Glen Davis has aspirations to be like Mike. The strange thing is that he isn’t trying to emulate Air Jordan on the hardwood. Instead, the injured Celtics’ forward also wants to make a mid-career sport switch, Chris Broussard reports.
But he’s not headed to the baseball diamond. No, Big Baby believes he has a future on the gridiron.
So will that make him Big Runningbaby? Big Quarterbaby? He doesn’t seem to care. “It don’t matter,” he said. “I just want to play.”
We at Ballershorts are not interested in Davis’ ability to succeed in the NFL. We are concerned with how this announcement will impact his current job. Don’t worry, he’s not planning to leave anytime soon. The 23-year-old intends to become an NBA All-Star before making his move. However, there will probably be earlier ramifications.
Davis’ contract runs for two more years, at which point he will be evaluated differently if teams take this football goal seriously. Would someone risk a long-term deal with significant guaranteed money on a player who could potentially bolt for the NFL? I guess they could add a contract clause that insures against such a maneuver, but teams would still be wary of giving any big bucks to someone who is questionably committed to the cause.
Front offices might also reconsider Davis’ place on a roster. GMs don’t like to have players with “character issues” as building blocks of their squads. While Davis doesn’t have those types of problems, a possible desertion could be viewed in the same light. Even if he does develop All-Star caliber, teams would most likely rather take in a veteran completely focused on hoops or develop a promising young guy. They might not want to become dependent on Davis for fear of him leaving them in the lurch. (Don’t you think Chicago might have made some provisions if they had known about Jordan’s departure?)
For Davis, this could mean less money and a less prominent position. On the other hand, he could then be a potential steal for an NBA franchise. A team could nab Big Baby for cheap as a quality role player, a similar situation to, hmm, what the Celtics did this year with Rasheed Wallace?
Then again, two years is a long time, especially in a sports world that produces a scandal a second. By the time Davis is negotiating a new deal, his statements may have long faded into the obscure recesses of memory. Or maybe he’ll already be receiving offers from the Patriots.
November 4, 2009 at 2:51 am · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA, Rants and Raves
My ongoing endeavor to incorporate overalls into my costume for 10 consecutive years aside, Ballershorts deserves some Halloween love. I know that the spooktacular holiday is, like, sooo last weekend, but I’m a big fan of extending celebrations as long as possible. Ever since my freshman floormate turned his birthday into the eight days of Shaunuka, I have tried to take full advantage and more of every festivity. Eating matzah pizza in June? C’mon, we’re finally free!
The first week of the NBA season has surely seen it’s share of scary, such as Charlotte’s shooting and Phil Jackson’s accidental finger food, but there has also been good and plenty of sweet, including the Celtics’ defense and Orlando’s role players. So let’s play a little game called “Trick or Treat:” I’m going to decide whether the following interesting early storylines will develop into continuing trends (Treat) or whether they are merely pretend (Trick).
Chris Bosh putting up MVP-caliber numbers: TREAT
While the Toronto Raptors remain enigmatic, their leading man has simply been dominant, to the tune of 31 points and 15 boards per game. Now it’s time to put the KiBOSH on the idea that his performance will fall off. There are two major reasons for this explosion. First and foremost, he’s playing for a contract here. Bosh is a member of the heralded free agents class of 2010 that includes LeBron and D-Wade, and the man wants to get paid! Over the last couple years there have been questions about his durability and heart. He wants to repudiate any naysayers and land a maximum deal. Furthermore, he is surrounded by better shooters than in years past, which gives him more room to operate in the paint and pinch post. Of course his numbers through three games are ungodly, but expect 25 and 12.
The Houston Rockets winning 75% of their games: TRICK
I’m honestly very impressed by their play thus far, as I had anticipated them getting destroyed by the good teams in the West. However, before long the victories will stop coming this quickly. Firstly, the Rockets’ style is not conducive to winning consistently throughout a long NBA season. They are undersized and less skilled than most teams, so they win by fighting and scrapping and hustling. Over the long haul, that wears you down, especially if you don’t have go-to guys to get you through tough situations and close calls. Additionally, Houston is arguably the squad most different from last year; Right now they are without Yao, TMac, and Artest, who were by far the three most important offensive players. Some may argue that there should be an adjustment period for these Rockets, but I contend that that is more significant for their opponents. At the moment this Houston team is an unpredictable, unknown quantity. The NBA is a league of such scouting and preparation. As the collection of film and statistics grows, the competition will have an increasingly easier time. Lastly, the Rockets are shooting 45% from behind the arc – Trevor Ariza in particular is burning down the house, hitting 52% and over 3 per game – which will doubtlessly decline. Teams just don’t stay that hot for an entire year. I predict 43 wins, give or take.
Derrick Rose’s sophomore slump: TRICK
Rose and his Bulls have struggled a bit at the outset, and Derrick’s numbers are down across the board. But don’t be fooled! Rose had an ankle injury that cost him much of the preseason and isn’t yet completely healed. Moreover, Chicago is a very different team without Ben Gordon and with a revamped Luol Deng. As soon as Rose is back to full speed and this Chicago squad jells, he’ll once again be the dangerous playmaker he was last year.
Boston winning more games than the rest of the Atlantic Division: TREAT
To give you perspective, if the Celtics were to win 65 games, the 76ers, Knicks, Nets, and Raptors would have to average a measly 16 wins in order for this outcome to occur. So no, I don’t think it will actually happen. But it might be the closest we’ll ever get. This Boston team is playing out of its mind. You’ve heard of shutting the door defensively, right? Well these guys have had theirs closed and bolted all year. They might not even have a door at all. Not to mention they’re getting offensive contributions from everywhere. Tonight Garnett and Allen totaled 8 points and they still won by 31 against Philly! Are you kidding me? I guess having Shelden Williams as a backup big man is enough. While Doc Rivers’ crew is rolling, the other four teams seem mired in mud. New Jersey looks almost as bad as Elton Brand, and New York recently lost to a team shooting 36% on the year. On the bright side, the 76ers, Raptors, and Knicks are all averaging at least 105 points per game. Too bad they’re all allowing at least 109 and a half. Final shakeout: Boston – 68 wins, others – 84. Close but no cigar.
Spurs winning while Duncan barely scores: TRICK
Would you have ever believed it if I would have told you before the season that the Spurs would start 2-1, with Tim Duncan scoring 28 points in their loss but less than 10 in their two wins? Believe it now. Yes, ladies and gentleman, Duncan has scored 16 total points in San Antonio’s two victories. Here’s the argument for why the Spurs can win this year with modest offensive output from Timmy. They’re deeper and more talented than they’ve been in years due to offseason additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Manu Ginobili’s finally healthy. Tony Parker can lead the team offensively as long as Duncan anchors the defensive end. Here’s why I don’t believe that argument. Firstly, the Spurs’ two victories have come against the abysmal kings and the disheveled Hornets. Neither is an accurate indication of what San Antonio really needs to do this season. Furthermore, San Antonio’s style of play is predicated on efficient half-court offense. Duncan is their only inside scoring threat, and they need his production to maintain necessary balance. I also unfortunately expect Ginobili to go down at some point this year because he plays with such reckless abandon. The Spurs would still be a decent team if Duncan didn’t perform at his former level, but they would not be an elite team. He’s possibly the best power forward in history.
The Lakers’ inconsistent level of play: TREAT
There was chatter this offseason that Los Angeles might make a run at the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ win mark of 72. I didn’t buy it for a second, for the same reasons that I’ve come to expect ostensibly baffling inconsistency. First, complacency. No, I’m not claiming that they aren’t hungry to repeat as champions. What I’m saying is that they know they’re extremely good, and therefore they don’t always give maximum effort against lesser teams. Tonight they were up 13 in the first quarter against the Thunder, but trailed several minutes later. Why? Because they believed that OKC never posed a real threat, which caused them to be lazy on defensive rotations, sloppy with the ball, and negligent on the backboards. They trust too much in being able to “turn it on” at will. Secondly, they’re still figuring things out. There’s the obvious, newcomer Ron Artest’s role, and the less obvious, Andrew Bynum’s evolving abilities and responsibilities. Thirdly, with Pau Gasol out, (and it might be for a while since they just found a partial tear in his hamstring), we are likely to see more of ‘06 Kobe. It’s true that he trusts his teammates now, but Gasol is hands down the one he trusts the most. We just might see Kobe shoot the Lakers into and out of games. Finally, Phil Jackson barely cares about these early season games. He rarely calls timeouts, instead letting the players work out the kinks on the floor, and he throws out some wacky lineups to see what combinations may play well together. At one point against the Clippers, the Laker lineup was DJ Mbenga, Josh Powell, Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown. Hey, Phil has a pretty good track record of solving things by the end. The Lakers will still win a ton of games and look dominant for stretches, but there will also be plenty of head-scratchers.
Me going 10 years in overalls: TRICK
I would love to have more faith in myself in this arena, but I don’t know if it’s even possible. So far I’ve employed my overalls to dress up as Super Mario, a farmer, and a construction worker. I have ideas for the future, scarecrow for one, but the list isn’t long. I think I’ll make it to at least 5, but I can’t guarantee anything beyond that.
November 1, 2009 at 12:19 pm · by bteitelbaum · Filed under NBA
Below I wrote an article proposing a new statistical evaluation, a complete plus/minus analysis, and I applied it to a game of Greg Oden’s. However, I also took away valuable insight into the type of player Oden is, his strengths and weaknesses, and whether I think he will ultimately be able to excel.
First, the good. Oden is already an excellent rebounder on both ends of the court. He doesn’t miss box outs on the defensive end and he crashes the offensive glass hard. He also seems to have soft hands. He secures the ball well when rebounding and makes nice catches in traffic. Defensively, Oden has decent instincts when it comes to blocking shots and plays solid on-ball post defense. Offensively, he has an adequate drop-step move and he doesn’t force up bad shots (although that may be a product of his lack of confidence in his offensive abilities).
Right now, though, Oden seems to have more flaws than strengths. He is a relatively fluid athlete with good size and power, which allowed him to get away with defects in high school and college and still dominate. However, everyone in the NBA is hyper-athletic, so he can no longer rely on his body or hide his mistakes.
First and foremost, Oden is terrible at defending the pick and roll, which is the most commonly used offensive set in the league. He consistently gets caught in no man’s land, neither stepping up to help on the ball nor staying with his guy on the roll. I couldn’t tell whether he was supposed to hedge or open up or switch because he didn’t defend the screen-roll in any of the possible “correct” ways. If I were George Karl, I would’ve put Oden in a pick and roll situation almost every time down the court.
Oden is also inconsistent with his defensive rotations. He seems to generally understand where he is supposed to go, but he tends to arrive a fraction late. This often causes him to pick up cheap fouls and get in foul trouble. Remember, he is still adjusting to NBA speed, and he needs to anticipate more instead of reacting.
Oden has several clear offensive weaknesses, as well. He needs to vastly improve his footwork, he doesn’t attack the rim strongly enough, and he isn’t proficient at passing out of the double-team. He was repeatedly very slow up the court and he was never involved in a fast break. One thing that makes Dwight Howard a great big man, which Andrew Bynum is now figuring out, is how hard he runs the court. He consistently beats the defense to the block to get deep post position and also gets easy buckets in transition.
Lastly, and this really surprised me, Oden sets a lot of ineffective screens. There was one specific sequence when he was trying to free up Brandon Roy, but the defender was easily brushing by or running through Oden’s picks. He frequently sets up with bad shoulder angle, slightly turning his body away from the defender rather than being squarely perpendicular. While this may make the post-pick roll easier, it doesn’t impede the defender’s progress well enough.
So do I think Oden will become an all-star? I don’t know. I am keeping in mind that Yao only averaged 14 and 8 his first year, Dwight just 12 and 10. As I touched on earlier, it often takes big men several years longer than guards and wings to figure out the different level of the NBA. Over the last 15 years, 12 of the 17 Rookie of the Years – there were two co-winners – were guards. During that same period, 11 of the first overall picks in the draft were bona fide big men. Furthermore, many of Oden’s shortcomings are quite correctable by coaching. For example, his pick and roll D, his footwork, his screening ability, and his hustle up the floor can all be developed with the right teaching and practice. I firmly believe he will become a solid starter on a team that contends for a championship. Of course, he’ll have to stay healthy and motivated, and we’ll have to stay posted.
November 1, 2009 at 11:30 am · by bteitelbaum · Filed under Game Analysis, NBA
Going into this NBA season, there were several things I was determined to learn more about, among them advanced stats and Greg Oden’s evolution as a player. Lately I’ve been reading a lot about such complex metrics as PER, adjusted plus/minus, and win shares. Each of these system’s proponents believes it is the best way to quantify player value. There’s definitely some worthwhile work being done, although I’m not yet sold on any of these barometers as truly accurate ways to measure effectiveness. Just like the computer polls in the BCS, there’s a human aspect missing. There are certain solid plays, such as setting strong screens, that go unrecorded in even the most expanded box scores. So it got me thinking, what would I discover if I closely watched game tape and documented every single play made by a specific player? Could I find out why Kevin Durant’s plus/minus is so bad and whether it is indicative of his performance?
Fortunately, there were a couple of good games on TV Thursday (the day I had this idea), one of them being Denver vs. Portland. What a lucky strike! I could analyze Greg Oden’s impact, both from a micro and macro perspective, allowing me to explore a new statistical method while scrutinizing a player I badly wanted to evaluate. So I set my Tivo, regrettably one minute and thirty seconds after the start of the game, and then sat down Friday afternoon to get to work. Oden’s final stat line in his team’s close loss: 2-5 from the field, 2-4 from the line, 6 points, 5 offensive rebounds, 4 defensive boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 1 turnover, 5 fouls. His standard plus/minus was +6. In fact, I was hoping that my stat would correlate well with and perhaps validate the plus/minus. Here’s how it played out.
- The system’s foundation: Let’s call it complete plus/minus, its goal being to determine precisely how much a player hurts or helps his team. Every move Oden made was assigned positive, negative, or neutral status. Positive plays included everything from the obvious, baskets scored, to the obscure, good box-outs. The negative ran the gamut from turnovers to not hustling back on D. The neutral occurred when he was not involved in a play or did something very basic such as reverse the ball during an offensive set. My instincts told me that particular actions were more useful or damaging than others, so I decided to create an arbitrarily weighted, and exceedingly simple, points scale.
- The system’s points scale: +2 for plays that lead directly to Blazer points or gaining possession from the Nuggets. +1 for positive plays that didn’t directly lead to the above consequences. 0 for neutral plays. -2 for plays that lead directly to Nugget points or turning the ball over. -1 for other negative plays.
- The results: Generally inconclusive (possibly due to the sample size of one). Surprisingly, Oden made the exact same number of positive and negative plays. I counted nine +2 and -2 plays, and sixteen +1 and -1 plays, leaving Oden’s complete plus/minus at 0. I’m still trying to figure out exactly what that means. Did Oden really hurt his team as much as he helped them? Was it just coincidence that his team scored more points while he was on the court?
- The system’s kinks: I would love some help from a stat guru to refine complete plus/minus. I admit that grading everything on a -2 to +2 scale is far too simplistic, that there should be a more nuanced weighting technique. Additionally, adding the human aspect allows for human error. What do we do about borderline positive or negative plays? Should every good screen or good box out be counted, even if it might not result in anything at all? Lastly, should we make adjustments for who the player is guarding, for example, which might affect even details of his play?
- The system’s weaknesses: There are obviously flaws to complete plus/minus, especially a major one that I acknowledge off the bat. Keeping this stat for every player would be nearly impossible due to the sheer effort and time required. Even hordes of men would have serious trouble.
I would love feedback on complete plus/minus, as it is clearly still a very nebulous system. Hopefully I’ll have enough time in the near future to analyze more games in this manner and reach make some further conclusions.
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